James Hyman

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  A network-patch modeling framework for the transmission of vector-borne infections
  James Hyman

  We have developed a network-patch model for the spread of mosquito-borne pathogens, including chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile virus. The model accounts for the movement of individual people through mosquito habitats that respond to environmental factors, such as rainfall and temperature. Our approach extends the capabilities of existing agent-based models for human movement developed to predict the spread of directly transmitted pathogens in human populations. These agent-based models are combined with differential equations representing clouds of mosquitoes in geographic patches that account for heterogeneity in mosquito density, mosquito emergence rates, and the extrinsic incubation period of the pathogen. I will illustrate the importance of heterogeneity in both human and mosquito populations on disease spread. The new hybrid agent-based/differential equation model can help quantify the importance of heterogeneity in predicting the spread and invasion of mosquito-borne pathogens and extend the capabilities of existing agent-based models to include vector-borne diseases. This research is in collaboration with Carrie Manore, Kyle Hickmann, Ivo Foppa, Dawn Wesson, Chris Mores, and Sara Del Valle.